April 2025 Africa Macro Outlook - archived

We analyse economic developments across ten African countries, providing the implications and outlook.

March 2025 Africa Macro Outlook

We analyse economic developments across ten African countries, providing the implications and outlook.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: March 3-7, 2025

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: February 24-28, 2025

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: February 17-21, 2025

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: February 10-14, 2025

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: January 13-17, 2025

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: December 23-27, 2024

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: December 9-13, 2024

Stay informed about key economic developments shaping investment opportunities in Africa.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: December 2-6, 2024

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Weekly Africa Macro Update: November 25-29, 2024

We analyse the latest policy pronouncements and economic indicators, providing the implications and near-term outlook for key African economies.

Other - 12 NOV 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s inflation climbs to 26.5% in October 2024

We analyse Egypt’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 01 NOV 2024

November 2024 Macro Outlook: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana & Kenya

We analyse economic developments across five African countries, providing the implications and outlook.

Other - 07 OCT 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s inflation rate rises to 21.50% in September 2024

We analyse Ghana’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

October 2024 Macro Outlook: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana & Kenya

We unpack the economic developments across five African countries, providing the implications and outlook.

Other - 02 OCT 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya’s inflation rate drops to 3.55% in September 2024

We analyse Kenya’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 27 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s MPC cut interest rates by 200 basis points in September 2024

We assess Ghana’s September 2024 interest rate decision and provide its implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 24 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s MPC tightens further by 50 basis points in September 2024

We assess Nigeria’s September 2024 interest rate decision and provide its implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 20 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s MPC cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2024

We assess South Africa’s September 2024 interest rate decision and provide its implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 19 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s economy expands by 6.9% (Y-o-Y) in Q2 2024

We analyse Ghana’s latest GDP growth data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 19 SEP 2024

Monetary Policy Outlook: South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana

We analyse the upcoming interest rate decisions across four key African countries and their broader macroeconomic implications.

Other - 18 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s inflation rate declines to 4.4% in August 2024

We analyse South Africa’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 17 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s inflation rate slowed to 32.15% in August 2024

We analyse Nigeria’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 12 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s inflation rate slows to 20.40% in August 2024

We analyse Ghana’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 11 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s inflation rate climbs to 26.25% in August 2024

We analyse Egypt’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Exchange Rate Forecasts: 5-Year Outlook for Key African Economies

We unpack the drivers of our latest exchange rate forecasts and provide the implications for African investments.

Other - 06 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt MPC holds interest rates steady at 27.25% in August 2024

We assess Egypt’s August 2024 interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 04 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s economy expands by 0.40% (Q-on-Q) in Q2 2024

We analyse South Africa’s latest GDP growth data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 02 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.19% in Q2 2024

We analyse Nigeria’s latest GDP growth data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 02 SEP 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya’s inflation rate rose to 4.37% in August 2024

We analyse Kenya’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

September 2024 Macro Outlook: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana & Kenya

We unpack the economic developments across five African countries, providing the implications and outlook.

Other - 21 AUG 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s inflation rate moderated to 4.6% in July 2024

We analyse South Africa’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 15 AUG 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s inflation rate cooled to 33.4% in July 2024

We analyse Nigeria’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 14 AUG 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s inflation slows to 20.9% in July 2024

We analyse Ghana’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 13 AUG 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s inflation rate eased further to 25.7% in July 2024

We analyse Egypt’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 06 AUG 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya’s MPC cuts interest rates to 12.75% in August 2024

We assess Kenya’s August 2024 interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

August 2024 Macro Outlook: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya & Ethiopia

We unpack the economic developments across six African countries, providing the implications and outlook.

Other - 01 AUG 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya’s inflation rate slows to 4.32% in July 2024

We analyse Kenya’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 29 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s MPC keeps rates at 29.0% in July 2024

We assess Ghana’s latest interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 24 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s inflation rate slows to 5.1% in June 2024

We analyse South Africa’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 23 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s MPC hikes interest rates to 26.75% in July 2024

We assess Nigeria’s July 2024 interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Monetary Policy Outlook: Nigeria’s Central Bank Likely to Hold Rates (July 2024)

We analyse the likely outcome of the upcoming MPC meeting in Nigeria and its implications.

Other - 19 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s MPC holds interest rates at 27.25% in July 2024

We assess Egypt’s July 2024 interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 18 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s MPC holds rates at 8.25% in July 2024

We assess South Africa’s latest interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 15 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s inflation rate climbs to 34.19% in June 2024

We analyse Nigeria’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 08 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya maintains 5.0% GDP growth in Q1 2024

We analyse Kenya’s latest GDP numbers, providing the near-term implications and outlook

Other - 01 JUL 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s economy expands 4.70% in Q1 2024

We analyse Ghana’s latest GDP numbers, providing the near-term implications and outlook

July 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa & Egypt

We analyse the economic performance of key African economies, providing an outlook for July 2024

Other - 24 JUN 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s headline inflation rate cools to 23.1% y/y in May 2024

We unpack Ghana’s latest inflation numbers, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Nigeria secures $2.25 billion World Bank loan, Ghana concludes debt restructuring talks

We unpack Nigeria and Ghana’s latest loan events and provide their implications for currency risks and debt sustainability.

Other - 10 JUN 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s inflation declines to 28.10% in May 2024

We unpack Egypt’s latest inflation numbers, providing the implications and near term outlook

Other - 06 JUN 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya’s MPC holds interest rates at 13.00%

We assess Kenya’s latest interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 05 JUN 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s Q1 2024 GDP contracts by 0.10%

We unpack South Africa’s latest GDP growth numbers, providing the implications and near-term outlook

June 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa & Egypt

We analyse the economic performance of key African economies, providing an outlook for June 2024

Other - 31 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Kenya’s inflation rises to 5.10% in May 2024

We analyse Kenya’s latest inflation data, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 31 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s MPC holds interest rates at 8.25%

We assess South Africa’s latest interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 28 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Ghana’s MPC holds interest rates at 29% in May 2024 meeting

We assess Ghana’s latest interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 24 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s unemployment rate moderates to 6.70% in Q1 2024

We assess Egypt’s latest unemployment data, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 24 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria's Q1 2024 GDP slows to 2.98%

We unpack Nigeria’s latest GDP growth numbers, providing the implications and near-term outlook

Other - 24 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Egypt’s MPC holds interest rates at 27.25% in May 2024 meeting

We assess Egypt’s latest interest rate decision, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 22 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: South Africa’s inflation decelerates to 5.2% in April 2024

We unpack South Africa’s April 2024 inflation numbers, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Other - 21 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria’s MPC raises key interest rate to 26.25%

Nigeria’s MPC raises key interest rate to 26.25% to tackle rising inflation

Consumer Markets in Kenya & South Africa: Market Size & Segmentation (May 2024)

We assess the economic profiles of Kenya and South Africa, which are classified as advanced consumer markets based on our proprietary framework.

African Central Banks to maintain high interest rates through May 2024

We analyse the upcoming interest rate decisions across five key African countries and their broader macroeconomic implications.

Other - 17 MAY 2024

Macro Data Bulletin: Nigeria's inflation hits 33.69% in April 2024

Nigeria steadies above 33%, in line with Stears’ forecast

Macro Brief: Egypt's inflation declines to 32.54% from 33.34% in March 2024

We unpack Egypt’s April 2024 inflation numbers, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

Macro Brief: Ghana’s inflation decelerates to 25% in April 2024

We unpack Ghana’s April 2024 inflation numbers, providing the implications and near-term outlook.

May 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa & Egypt

We provide an overview and outlook on the performance of Africa's key economies, covering essential macroeconomic indicators such as inflation.

Chart of the Week: Ghana's debt challenges threaten economic recovery

We unpack Ghana’s debt restructuring challenges and the impact on macroeconomic stability.

April 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: African central banks will remain hawkish in the short term

We assess the impact of monetary policy decisions on the broader fixed-income market performance across key African markets.

Chart of the Week: Nigerian consumers opt for cheaper alternatives as food prices rise

Nigerian consumers are switching to cheaper substitutes and reducing demand for staples as food costs climb.

March 2024 Currency Risk: A stronger Kenyan shilling boosts consumer spending

We assess the fundamentals behind the appreciation of the Kenyan shilling and its implications on the economy and aggregate consumption levels.

Macro Brief: Nigerian central bank boldly hikes rates by 400 basis points

We assess the immediate and future implications of the CBN’s 400 bps rate hike.

The CBN’s inflation-targeting success hinges on a robust monetary policy transmission

We unpack the CBN’s decision to adopt the inflation-targeting framework using evidence from peer African countries, including South Africa and Ghana

Kenyans face higher borrowing rates as CBK tackles inflation

The Central Bank of Kenya has remained hawkish to curb inflation. However, the short-term implications for consumers prove severe.

February 2024 Currency Risk: implications of the naira’s sharp decline

Forex market disequilibrium and the lingering dollar dearth continue to fuel currency pressures in Nigeria.

2024 Outlook: Persistent inflation challenges in African economies

We unpack the drivers of inflation in Nigeria and Kenya in 2023 and provide an outlook for 2024

January 2024 Currency Risk: African central banks rally for exchange rate stability

We unpack the exchange rate performance in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, providing an outlook for January 2024.

November 2023 FX Analysis: Currency pressures persist for key African economies

We unpack the exchange rate performance in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, providing an outlook for December 2023.

Nigeria’s central bank must boost investor confidence to tackle inflation

We unpack the drivers of Nigeria’s October inflation, recommending exchange rate stabilisation to cool price pressures in the near term.

Kenya’s inflation quickens to 6.9% in October

We unpack the drivers of rising inflation in Kenya and its impact on consumer spending.

October 2023 FX Analysis: Naira, Rand and Shilling decline

The Nigerian naira, Kenyan shilling, and South African rand show varying degrees of currency volatility that will impact investor confidence.

How agriculture fuelled Kenya’s Q2’2023 GDP growth

Unpacking agriculture’s impact on Kenya’s latest GDP growth.

Interest rate dynamics: why the CBK left rates unchanged

Unpacking the drivers behind the CBK’s monetary policy decision to leave benchmark rates unchanged.

Unpacking the drivers behind Kenya’s declining inflation

We assess Kenya's inflation trend with a focus on foods, fuels and transport, highlighting why prices could keep falling.

How Kenya's higher taxes will affect consumer demand

Kenya’s VAT, PAYE and housing levy recently changed. Are they progressive enough to sustain consumption?

Forex reforms and the naira’s volatile journey

The naira has been fluctuating. We assess how the recent foreign exchange reforms impact the currency's value.

What Kenya’s MPC decision means for its economy

We assess the impact of Kenya's latest MPC decision on businesses and consumers.

Short-term pain, long-term gain: what is the consumer outlook for Nigeria?

Stears analyses the long-term consumer spending outlook for the Nigerian economy.

Easing Nigerians’ purchasing power squeeze: what will it take?

Can ₦8,000 cash transfers boost consumer spending in Nigeria?

Boosting consumer spending in Nigeria

Recent reforms point to harder living situations in Nigeria, increasing poverty and lower consumer demand.

Attracting Investors: Lessons for Nigeria from Asia's 1997 crisis

We unpack Asia's 1997 financial crisis unveiling lessons for Nigeria as it tries to woo foreign investors with FX reforms.

How will the new FX policy affect FMCGs and consumers?

This deep dive assesses how Nigeria's exchange rate reform will impact FMCG companies and everyday consumers.

Ripple effects: The impact of the naira redesign on Nigeria's GDP

We dive into Nigeria's Q1'2023 GDP report to assess the naira redesign impact on the economy.

Explainer: Nigeria's new unemployment methodology

We explain and assess the implications of Nigeria's new unemployment methodology.

What lies ahead for Nigeria’s consumer goods giants?

We take a predictive look into what the future holds for Nigeria's FMCGs.

Why does it cost so much to travel across Nigeria?

After food, Nigerians spend the most on transportation. We assess how transport costs have grown and the likelihood of further increases.

How are sub-Saharan African countries coping with global challenges?

Africa's “big four” countries have had it tough in recent years. We unpack how the current global headwinds are impacting their economic growth.

Special economic zones: Nigeria's gateway to boosting exports

A deep dive into Nigeria's export potential using special economic zones (SEZs).

How exports can boost Nigeria's GDP

Increasing exports has a positive multiplier effect on the economy as it boosts government revenue, investments, and consumption levels.

How do strikes impact Nigeria's airline industry?

The cost of strikes to Nigeria's aviation sector.

3 risks for Nigeria’s investors in 2023

Using WEF data, we assess Nigeria's 2023 risk factors for investors.

What's in Buhari's last budget?

Three key themes define Nigeria's 2023 budget.

Will Nigeria's census happen in 2023?

Nobody knows how many Nigerians there are and that's a problem

2023 manifesto explained: assessing APC and PDP's plans for agriculture

How Tinubu’s vision for agriculture differs from Buhari’s.

What’s the deal between Ethiopian Airlines and Nigeria’s national carrier?

We explain what Nigeria Air's deal with Ethiopian Airlines means for Nigeria's aviation sector.

Why moving Nigeria's economy forward isn't just about GDP

We look at the policy choices that Nigerian policymakers need to focus on

How will Nigeria's floods impact food security?

Assessing how flooding will worsen food insecurity—rising food prices and shortages—in Nigeria.

Where is the Nigerian economy headed?

A look into Nigeria’s economic future through the IMF’s eyes.

Inflation: will prices ever go back down?

People are finding it increasingly difficult to survive with fast-rising and high prices.

Why is bread getting so expensive in Nigeria?

The Russian-Ukraine war is not all to blame for Nigeria’s bread price problem. Domestic issues like forex illiquidity are contributing factors.

How are Nigerians coping with higher prices?

A look into consumers' experiences with rising prices across industries in Nigeria.

Why are Nigerian states not financially independent?

Nigeria's state governments need to stop their over-reliance on federal allocations.

Will Nigerian airlines ever be profitable?

The airline industry is crucial for the global economy, but is it good business?

Why JP Morgan thinks the Nigerian economy is risky

We unpack the reasons and potential impacts of JP Morgan's decision to reclassify Nigeria bonds

Can Nigeria plug the global palm oil shortage?

We look at how Indonesia's export ban on palm oil affects Nigerian households

Should Nigeria join the Ivory Coast-Ghana cocoa cartel?

We unpack the benefits of belonging to a cocoa cartel for Nigeria